Extreme weather drives global food price surge

Food prices have been rising worldwide due to extreme weather conditions caused by global climate change, The Financial Times reported, citing research from the Barcelona Supercomputing Center.

Previous analyses have focused on how higher temperatures reduce agricultural yields and long-term supply, thereby contributing to gradual price increases. However, the new study highlights that extreme weather can also trigger sharp, short-term spikes in the prices of individual food products, fueling inflation.

The research directly links dozens of extreme weather events to sudden price surges and reveals the growing vulnerability of global food systems to environmental shocks.

For example, the price of olive oil in Europe rose by 50% last year following prolonged droughts in southern Spain during 2022 and 2023. In India, onion prices soared by 89% due to extreme heat in May 2024. In South Korea, cabbage prices jumped 70% after a record summer heat wave.

Japan saw rice prices climb by 48% in September after an August heat wave, while in China, vegetable prices increased by 30% for the same reason. In the United States, vegetables from California and Arizona became 80% more expensive in November 2022 after severe droughts.

The study’s lead author, Maximilian Kotz, emphasized that many of these weather events were “historically unprecedented.” He noted that recorded temperatures were far above the levels expected in a stable climate unaffected by human-induced emissions.

Analysts also concluded that regional price spikes often spread globally through trade. For instance, after drought and extreme heat caused cocoa prices in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire to triple, chocolate prices in the UK rose sharply.

“The main driver of inflation is rising food prices,” the study’s authors stated.

According to experts, abnormally high temperatures have a direct impact on overall inflation rates worldwide. “The study found that food prices typically rise within a few months after an extreme weather event—a trend likely to become more frequent as climate change intensifies,” the report concluded.