Central Asia’s population could reach 96 million by 2040

Central Asia’s population could reach 96 million by 2040, placing significant pressure on infrastructure and requiring rapid growth in energy efficiency, water resource management, and transport, Nikolai Podguzov, Chairman of the Management Board of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), said in an interview with TASS.

“According to our estimates, by 2040 the population of Central Asia could reach 96 million. This should serve as a driver for economic growth, but at the same time it means a very heavy burden on infrastructure. For sustainable development, rapid progress is needed in energy efficiency, modern mobile transport, and water management,” Podguzov said.

He noted that the region is among the most vulnerable to climate change.

“According to projections, water shortages will intensify and could reach 5–12 cubic kilometers per year by 2028,” he added.

Podguzov also pointed out that a significant share of the region’s water resources is lost due to outdated infrastructure. The EDB is involved in financing projects aimed at modernizing irrigation systems, introducing water-saving technologies, and digitalizing water accounting.

He further highlighted the impact of geography on regional development.

“The region is located more than 3,000 kilometers from the ocean. As a result, trade becomes 20–40 percent more expensive, and economies lose up to 1.5 percentage points of annual growth. This is a kind of ‘distance tax,’” he said.

According to Podguzov, this challenge can only be addressed by improving transport systems.

“That is why the EDB has proposed the Eurasian Transport Framework concept — a network of transport corridors designed to reduce logistics costs and accelerate trade. Currently, transport routes are mainly oriented east–west. However, the north–south direction and the prospective Trans-Afghan corridor are also important, as they would open access to South Asian and Persian Gulf markets,” he said.

Podguzov emphasized that Central Asia is one of the fastest-growing regions in the world. By 2026, the EDB expects the combined economies of the five Central Asian countries to reach $600 billion.

“However, to move forward and achieve major results, the region must first understand how to respond to its key challenges — demographics, transport, and water supply. These three factors are closely interconnected,” he said.

According to UNICEF, the region’s population exceeded 84 million in 2025.

For reference, the Eurasian Development Bank was established in 2006 at the initiative of Russia and Kazakhstan and is headquartered in Almaty, Kazakhstan. It is an international financial institution that promotes investment activity and economic cooperation among its member states — Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. Uzbekistan joined the bank in 2025.

Earlier, reports indicated that by 2028 Central Asia could enter a chronic phase of water scarcity.