Will the West recognize Palestine?

The first week of September is coming to an end, and this month is expected to bring significant developments. For some, deadlines are approaching, while for others, promises are due to be fulfilled. The focus, however, is on Palestine and its recognition.

Several major European countries have pledged to recognize an independent State of Palestine in the coming weeks, specifically during the United Nations General Assembly. The 80th session of the UN General Assembly will open on September 9, 2025. High-level general debates will take place on September 23–27 and conclude on September 29, 2025.

If these promises are honored and Palestine is recognized as a state during this major event, what will it mean for the Palestinian people and for Israel? Today, let us take a closer look at this issue.

The current status of the Palestinian state

The Palestine Liberation Organization declared an independent State of Palestine in 1988, and many Global South countries quickly recognized it. Today, 147 out of the 193 UN member states have recognized Palestine, the most recent being Mexico in January 2025.

The United States, Israel’s main ally, has traditionally expressed its intention to recognize a Palestinian state, but only within the framework of a mutually agreed “two-state solution” between Israel and the Palestinians. Until recently, Europe’s leading countries also held this position. However, Israel and Palestine have not engaged in such negotiations since 2014.

The Palestinian delegation at the United Nations holds permanent observer status but does not have voting rights. Regardless of how many countries recognize Palestine, full UN membership requires approval from the Security Council, where Washington holds veto power.

Palestine maintains diplomatic missions worldwide, including its UN mission, all under the authority of the Palestinian Authority, which is recognized by the international community. Led by President Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority exercises limited self-governance in parts of the occupied West Bank under agreements with Israel. It issues Palestinian passports and oversees healthcare and education systems. The Gaza Strip, however, has been controlled by Hamas since 2007, after Abbas’s Fatah movement was ousted from the territory.

Who promises to recognize Palestine and why?

The United Kingdom, France, Canada, Australia, and Belgium have announced their intention to recognize the State of Palestine at the upcoming UN General Assembly session later this month. However, London noted that its decision could be delayed depending on whether Israel eases the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and remains committed to the peace process.

These countries aim to use this move to pressure Israel to halt its offensive in Gaza, curb the construction of Jewish settlements in the West Bank, and restart the peace process with the Palestinians.

French President Emmanuel Macron was the first Western leader to advance the recognition initiative. He stated that the step would go hand in hand with reforms carried out by the Palestinian Authority to strengthen its governance, making the Authority a more reliable partner in the post-war administration of Gaza.

What does recognition give?

Some argue that recognition of Palestine is largely a symbolic step, pointing to examples such as China, India, Russia, and many Arab states that have recognized Palestine but have not had significant influence on the course of the conflict. Without full UN membership or control over its borders, the Palestinian Authority’s capacity in bilateral relations remains limited. There are no official embassies on Palestinian territory, countries cannot freely send diplomats, and Israel restricts access to trade, investment, education, and cultural exchanges. Palestine has no airports; entry to the West Bank is only possible via Israel or the Israel-controlled Jordanian border, while access to Gaza is entirely under Israeli control.

Nevertheless, both the Palestinian Authority and the countries preparing to grant recognition stress that this move carries not only symbolic but also practical significance. According to Husam Zomlot, Palestine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, recognition could pave the way for strategic partnerships:

“We will stand on equal footing. We will use every possible path to address past mistakes”, he said.

Vincent Fean, the former British consul in Jerusalem, noted that recognition of Palestine could prompt countries to reconsider certain aspects of their relations with Israel. For instance, Britain might ban products originating from Israeli settlements in the occupied territories. However, he also emphasized that such goods represent only a small share of Israel’s overall economy, meaning that even this step would remain largely symbolic.

How do the US and Israel react?

Facing global criticism over the massacre in Gaza, Israel has naturally voiced strong opposition to initiatives aimed at recognizing Palestine, arguing that such moves would only embolden Hamas.

For decades, Israel has formally pledged its commitment to a peace process that would ultimately result in Palestinian independence. However, the country is now governed by the most right-wing administration in its history. Some of its coalition parties openly declare their intention to ensure that Palestine never becomes a state. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly stressed that Israel will never relinquish security control over Gaza and the West Bank.

In addition, Israel has launched a series of diplomatic offensives against several Western allies preparing to recognize Palestine. Netanyahu sent letters to the leaders of France and Australia, accusing them of fueling antisemitism through their decisions to recognize Palestinian statehood. In both letters, he cited recent incidents of antisemitic and anti-Israel actions, linking them to these governments’ positions on the Gaza war and Palestinian statehood.

The Elysee Palace issued a sharp response to the letter. According to the French President’s office, Macron first learned of the letter through media reports and only later received it via official diplomatic channels.

“France has always protected, and will continue to protect, its citizens of the Jewish faith. The present moment calls for seriousness and responsibility, not distraction and manipulation”, the Elysee Palace stated.

Such disputes have become a sign of a deepening rift between Netanyahu and his Western allies, many of whom are increasingly critical of Israel’s war in Gaza. The conflict has devastated the region and worsened the humanitarian crisis. Last week, New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, speaking about Netanyahu, said: “he is insane”. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told Jyllands-Posten newspaper: “Netanyahu himself has become a problem”.

Netanyahu also strongly criticized Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, calling him a “weak politician”. Yet the very same “weak” leader oversaw a government that, in June, imposed sanctions on Israel’s far-right ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir. Later, Australian Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke denied a visa to another far-right Israeli politician, Simcha Rothman. In response, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar revoked residency visas for Australian representatives in the Palestinian Authority and ordered Israel’s embassy in Canberra to scrutinize every official Australian visa request.

Responding to Netanyahu’s accusation of being “weak”, Albanese said he does not take such remarks personally, stressing that he treats other heads of state with respect and communicates with them in diplomatic language. Australia’s Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke, in turn, reminded Netanyahu: “Strength is not measured by how many people you can blow up or how many children you can starve”.

As a counter-response to Western countries recognizing the State of Palestine, Israel is considering the annexation of parts of the West Bank. According to Israeli officials, Netanyahu has held preliminary discussions on the matter, but the security cabinet has not yet reviewed it in detail or made any decision.

Israel seized the West Bank from Jordan in the 1967 war and has since built Jewish settlements there in violation of international law. Palestinians, however, aspire to establish their future state in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip, a vision supported by much of the international community.

Israeli officials note that Netanyahu is weighing different scenarios: from annexing only certain villages to extending annexation over “Area C”, which makes up 60 percent of the West Bank.

Under the Oslo Accords of the 1990s, the West Bank was divided into three areas, A, B, and C. “Area C” remains under Israel’s full administrative and security control.

It was reported that Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar briefed U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio last week about the annexation plans. However, according to other sources, Washington has not yet given a “green light” to these proposals.

One of the main options under consideration is the annexation of the Jordan Valley, which forms the eastern edge of the West Bank and borders the Jordan River. This idea has broad support within Israeli society, as portraying it as a “security perimeter” appears more acceptable to the international community and, crucially, to Washington.

Yet Netanyahu’s far-right allies, Bezalel Smotrich, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and settlement leaders, oppose partial annexation. They advocate extending Israeli sovereignty over the entire West Bank, excluding areas populated by Palestinians. Such a move would encircle Palestinian towns and villages, effectively eliminating the prospect of an independent Palestinian state.

If Israel were to annex territories inhabited by Palestinians, it could be forced to grant citizenship or residency rights to nearly three million people.

Any annexation, however, would violate several United Nations Security Council resolutions and trigger a major diplomatic crisis. Resolution 2334 of 2016 declared Israeli settlements to be a “flagrant violation of international law” with “no legal validity.”

According to one Israeli official, Netanyahu is considering phased annexation. For example, starting with certain areas and expanding later. This approach could give Israel the option to scale back full annexation in exchange for normalization with Saudi Arabia.

In 2020, Israel also seriously considered annexing the West Bank but abandoned the plan within the framework of the Abraham Accords. At that time, Israel normalized relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco. Saudi Arabia, however, made clear that it would only agree to normalization if Israel took concrete steps toward Palestinian statehood.

Beyond annexation, Israel is also weighing other punitive measures in response to the recognition of Palestinian statehood, such as imposing sanctions on the Palestinian Authority.

The United States has joined in these efforts. Washington decided to deny visas to Palestinian Authority officials, in coordination with Israel, as part of an attempt to block Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas from traveling to New York for the UN General Assembly.

During the presidency of Donald Trump, Washington offered Israel nearly unconditional support. Yet even some of its closest allies have expressed concern over Prime Minister Netanyahu’s conduct of the war in Gaza.

Trump himself also commented:

“Israel is losing the PR war. They need to end the war. The war is hurting Israel. They may be winning on the battlefield, but they are losing the war in the eyes of the public. And it is hurting them badly”.