Central Bank keeps key policy rate unchanged

Today, December 28, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan decided to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 14 percent. This was reported by the Central Bank’s press service.

According to the Bank, in December 2025 overall inflation remained within the forecast range and declined to 7.3 percent year-on-year. The easing of inflation was supported by tight monetary conditions, appreciation of the exchange rate, and a slowdown in core inflation influenced by import price dynamics. In particular, core inflation declined to 5.7 percent year-on-year in December.

Although services inflation has slowed to some extent, it remains above overall inflation due to demand-side factors. At the same time, inflation expectations in the economy halted their downward trend and recorded a slight increase in December.

These factors indicate the need to maintain tight monetary conditions for a longer period in order to ensure a sustainable reduction of inflation to the target level.

According to updated forecasts, inflation is expected to be around 6.5 percent by the end of 2026.

High investment activity, fiscal expenditures, and increasing remittance inflows are expected to continue supporting income growth and consumer demand in the economy this year as well.

In addition, risks related to the supply of certain key food products, as well as potential supply disruptions during the winter season, may exert upward pressure on food and service prices in the coming months.

Despite ongoing uncertainties in the external economic environment, their overall impact is expected to remain relatively moderate. Inflation in key trading partner countries has entered a downward trend, while global economic growth has exceeded earlier expectations.

Strong growth in prices of precious metals is forecast to continue contributing significantly to export revenues and budget income.

In the domestic foreign exchange market, support from export revenues, external borrowing, and remittance inflows contributed to a 6.9 percent appreciation of the Uzbek soum in 2025.

Against the backdrop of current economic and investment activity, economic growth for the year is expected to be in the range of 6.5–7 percent.

For reference, on December 11 last year, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan also decided to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 14 percent.