Is Erdoğan unhappy? Why the OTS Gabala Summit passed quietly

The recent summit of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) in Gabala, Azerbaijan, on October 6–7, was held relatively quietly. This followed the first official summit of the OTS Heads of State Council and the “Central Asia–European Union” meeting in Samarkand on April 3–4, where several decisions pushed three Central Asian OTS members—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan—along with observer Turkmenistan, into a diplomatic corner.

At the Samarkand “Central Asia–European Union” summit, the five Central Asian countries—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—agreed with the EU not to recognize the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).

According to the declaration signed by the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, along with European leaders Charles Michel, António Costa, Ursula von der Leyen, and Odile Renaud-Basso, all parties committed to respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states in all international and regional forums and to refraining from actions that contradict these principles.

The declaration reaffirmed adherence to UN Security Council Resolutions 541 (1983) and 550 (1984), which call for non-recognition of Northern Cyprus and prohibit cooperation with the territory. Turkmenistan, for its part, emphasized that it fulfills its international obligations in strict accordance with its permanent neutrality status. To date, Turkey remains the only country that has officially recognized the TRNC.

With the exception of Tajikistan, all Central Asian states—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan—along with Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Hungary, are either full or observer members of the OTS. The TRNC was granted observer status at the Samarkand summit in November 2022 at the insistence of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

The signing of a document by OTS members pledging not to recognize or cooperate with the TRNC caused a strong backlash in Turkey. Some politicians accused the government of allowing a diplomatic affront and even called for severing ties. While Erdoğan’s government did not act on such calls, relations have noticeably cooled.

For instance, in the past seven months, Erdoğan and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev have held only two phone conversations, one of them on March 30—just before the “Central Asia–EU” summit. That same day, Erdoğan also called Kazakhstan’s Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyzstan’s Sadyr Japarov, and Turkmenistan’s Halk Maslahaty Chairman Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow. Subsequent phone calls with these leaders took place only on their birthdays.

During this period, Erdoğan held an in-person meeting only with Tokayev, who visited Turkey on July 20–30. Erdoğan treated Tokayev with great respect and awarded him the country’s highest state honor. With other regional leaders, however, no bilateral meetings have been held to date.

Even at the extraordinary OTS summit in Budapest on May 20–21, no bilateral meetings between Erdoğan and other heads of state took place. Nor were there any meetings during the ECO summit in Khankendi in July or the 80th UN General Assembly session in September. No reports indicate that Erdoğan met with leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, or Uzbekistan during this time.

The Gabala summit, too, lacked bilateral meetings among presidents and was markedly quieter than previous gatherings. Notably, the traditional participation of First Ladies—who often play a soft power role—was absent. This was surprising, given the warm relations between Azerbaijan’s First Lady Mehriban Aliyeva, Uzbekistan’s First Lady Ziroat Mirziyoyeva, and Turkey’s First Lady Emine Erdoğan, who were last seen together at the UN anniversary session in New York.

The 12th OTS Summit, chaired by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, was attended by the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan, along with Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Turkmenistan’s Halk Maslahaty Chairman Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow, and TRNC President Ersin Tatar.

Unlike previous summits, where photos showed presidents warmly greeting and embracing each other—especially Erdoğan and Mirziyoyev—this time such images were absent. There were smiles, but they appeared restrained. One photo drew attention: TRNC President Ersin Tatar was seated to Mirziyoyev’s left, with Ilham Aliyev on his right. Erdoğan sat opposite them, alongside Viktor Orbán and Tokayev.

Despite the earlier EU agreement signed by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan not to recognize or cooperate with the TRNC, all these countries gathered in the same room as its president. This marked the third major event since the signing of that document. Only Aliyev held a private meeting with Tatar.

Even so, Aliyev’s one-on-one meetings with the TRNC leader have been rare—just four to date. Although Azerbaijan has long maintained close ties with Turkey, which staunchly supports Northern Cyprus, Aliyev had previously kept a distance due to Western sensitivities about Nagorno-Karabakh. Now, however, following the Central Asia–EU agreement, Aliyev has expressed his intention to advocate for the TRNC’s international recognition.

“We are among the countries actively working for the recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus,” Aliyev declared. “During the informal summit in Shusha, President Ersin Tatar attended, and the flag of Northern Cyprus was raised. We will always stand by our brothers and support their right to defend their state.”

After the Central Asian states aligned with the EU on the Cyprus issue, the OTS Council of Elders convened on May 1–2 in Lefkoşa, the capital of the TRNC. Later, during the informal leaders’ summit in Budapest on May 20–21, Tatar again participated, and Erdoğan renewed his call for full membership for Northern Cyprus within the OTS.

“We believe the Turkic world’s family photo will not be complete without the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus,” Erdoğan said. “Today’s decision to grant the TRNC observer status in the Turkic Academy is an important step. I hope the day will soon come when the TRNC becomes a full member of our organization.”

The joint declaration adopted at the Gabala summit also mentioned Northern Cyprus. The document noted the granting of observer status to the TRNC in the Turkic Academy and hailed it as a step toward strengthening cultural and academic cooperation within the Turkic world.

Significantly, the leaders emphasized the need to resolve the Cyprus issue through negotiations based on the current realities on the island and expressed their solidarity with the Turkish Cypriots in their pursuit of equal rights. This raises the question: does this contradict the document signed at the “Central Asia–EU” summit? Or perhaps the EU agreement itself was inherently unjust toward Northern Cyprus. It seems to reflect a double standard toward one country.

The joint statement also addressed Gaza, Palestine, and Syria. The leaders expressed deep concern about the worsening humanitarian situation in Gaza, calling for an immediate and lasting ceasefire and unimpeded delivery of humanitarian aid.

They also reaffirmed the need for a just and lasting solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, in line with relevant UN resolutions, based on the 1967 borders, and establishing an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.

Regarding Syria, the leaders reaffirmed their support for its territorial integrity, unity, and stability and emphasized the importance of eliminating all forms of terrorism. Erdoğan, in his Gabala speech, praised the achievements of Syria’s new government under Bashar al-Assad over the past nine months and called for strengthening political, economic, and security ties while preserving Syria’s territorial integrity.

Afghanistan was also on the agenda. The leaders underscored that the country’s stability is vital for the security and prosperity of OTS members and agreed to strengthen coordination through the OTS Working Group on Afghanistan.

The statement commended Kyrgyzstan’s efforts in resolving border issues and highlighted the historic significance of the border agreement signed with Tajikistan in Bishkek on March 13, 2025, as well as the trilateral agreement signed in Khujand on March 31, 2025, between Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, marking an important step toward regional cooperation and stability.

The leaders urged member and observer states to coordinate their positions on common concerns, to speak with one voice in global decision-making, and to enhance the visibility and influence of the Turkic world in international platforms. They encouraged foreign ministers to hold frequent consultations to adapt to rapid global and regional changes.

They also agreed to continue regular consultations on political and security matters and to strengthen joint responses to evolving geopolitical and security challenges.

The leaders reaffirmed their commitment to combating terrorism, extremism, transnational organized crime, and cybersecurity threats. They called for the swift review of the draft “Treaty on Strategic Partnership, Eternal Friendship, and Brotherhood among Turkic States,” aimed at strengthening unity and advancing joint initiatives.

They also pledged to coordinate efforts against all forms of Islamophobia on international platforms.

In the end, although the 12th OTS summit was less publicized and more modest than previous ones, it still contained numerous important developments. Each leader’s speech revealed distinct national priorities—some focused on the economy, others on defense or military cooperation. While some remained passive observers, the overall message was clear: the Turkic world has already united into a single front. What remains is to strengthen mutual trust and uphold equality among members.