Uzbekistan to surpass Kazakhstan in urbanization level by 2050 – UN

By 2050, Uzbekistan is expected to surpass Kazakhstan in terms of urbanization levels. This is stated in the United Nations report World Urbanization Prospects 2025.

According to the report, global urbanization has increased significantly over the past 75 years. UN data show that in the mid-20th century, only about 20 percent of the world’s population lived in large cities, while around 40 percent resided in small and medium-sized towns and rural areas. By 2025, the share of people living in large cities had reached 44.8 percent, and by 2050 this figure is projected to rise to 48.3 percent. The proportion of the population living in small and medium-sized cities has declined to 35.6 percent and is expected to fall further to 34.6 percent by 2050. The rural population now accounts for less than one-fifth of the global population, standing at 19.6 percent in 2025 and projected to decline to 17.1 percent by 2050.

In 2025, South America recorded the highest level of urbanization among world regions, with 54 percent of its population living in large cities. It was followed by Asia (46.1 percent), Africa (41.1 percent), Europe (40.4 percent), Australia–Oceania (38.2 percent), and North America (36.8 percent).

Asia had the lowest share of rural population at 15.4 percent. It was followed by South America and North America, with rural population shares of 20.8 percent and 25.4 percent, respectively. The highest proportion of rural population was recorded in Australia–Oceania at 29.2 percent, followed by Europe and Africa at 27 percent and 26.9 percent.

In Central Asia, the share of the population living in large cities in 2025 stood at 41.1 percent, slightly lower than the share living in small and medium-sized cities (41.6 percent). The rural population accounted for 17.3 percent. Among Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan had the highest level of urbanization, with 45.3 percent of its population living in large cities. Another 32.2 percent resided in small and medium-sized cities, while the rural population accounted for 22.4 percent, one of the highest shares in the region, surpassed only by Kyrgyzstan at 23.1 percent.

Uzbekistan ranked second in the region in terms of urbanization, with 43.8 percent of its population living in large cities and 43.4 percent in small and medium-sized cities. At the same time, Uzbekistan had the lowest rural population share among Central Asian countries at 12.8 percent.

In Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, the proportion of the population living in large cities ranged from 32.5 percent to 35.5 percent.

According to UN projections, by 2050 Uzbekistan will overtake Kazakhstan in terms of urbanization. In Uzbekistan, 54.6 percent of the population is expected to live in large cities, compared to 51 percent in Kazakhstan. At the same time, Uzbekistan will retain the lowest rural population share in the region at 8.7 percent. In contrast, Kazakhstan’s rural population share is projected to become the highest among Central Asian countries at 18.7 percent, exceeding even that of Kyrgyzstan, which is forecast at 18 percent.

Globally, the urbanization process is continuing and, in the long term, is expected to be concentrated primarily in large cities. The role of small and medium-sized cities is likely to remain relatively stable, while the rural population share will continue to decline steadily. This points to the formation of a two-tier urbanization model, in which major migration flows are directed toward the largest urban centers.

A similar trend is observed in Central Asia, where the share of the population living in large cities is increasing, while small and medium-sized cities are not expanding significantly. According to UN data, Kazakhstan remains the most urbanized country in the region, but in the medium term it may lose this position to Uzbekistan.