Trump gives Putin an “ultimatum”

For the past two days, U.S. President Donald Trump has been sending unprecedentedly serious signals to Russia and President Vladimir Putin. Following the announcement of a 50-day ultimatum to end the invasion and the promise to supply weapons to Ukraine, questions have arisen about the future of what was once considered a cordial relationship between Trump and Putin.

Trump has repeatedly stated that each phone call with Putin "went great," only for Russia to fire on Ukraine shortly afterward. Nevertheless, he has stopped short of admitting that Putin has deceived him. Trump insists that while Putin may have outmaneuvered former U.S. Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, he will not be allowed to do the same under his watch. If Russia does not halt its invasion within the strict 50-day deadline, Trump has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Putin’s allies and to step up military support for Ukraine on the battlefield.

This declaration marks a fundamental shift in the dynamic between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States. However, the 50-day deadline has been criticized in official circles as excessively long. Still, Trump appears hesitant to enter into a direct and severe conflict with Moscow—at least for now.

Step away from Putin

On July 13, speaking at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, Trump announced that the United States would supply Ukraine with Patriot air defense systems. He did not specify how many units would be sent but emphasized that the weapons would not be delivered for free. According to Trump, the costs would be covered by European allies, while for the United States, it was “just business.”

The following day, July 14, was marked by a flurry of diplomatic activity. Keith Kellogg, the U.S. President’s special representative for Ukraine, arrived in Kyiv. Reports indicate that the talks covered arms deliveries and broader cooperation between the two nations. Ukrainian presidential adviser Andriy Yermak commented that there were many topics discussed, hinting at a significant turning point in U.S.-Ukraine relations.

That same day, Trump met with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House and made statements that many had been anticipating. Trump announced that the United States would impose 100 percent secondary tariffs on countries trading with Russia if a peace agreement in Ukraine is not reached within 50 days. During the meeting, Trump expressed his growing frustration with Putin. He admitted that he had once hoped to reach a peace deal months earlier. 

He also shared a personal anecdote: “Every time I go home, I tell my wife that I talked to Vladimir and it was a great conversation. And she says, ‘Are you serious? They’ve been shelling cities in Ukraine again.’”

In the same remarks, Trump clarified that the United States currently possesses 17 Patriot systems, which are not urgently needed domestically and can therefore be transferred to Ukraine. He also mentioned that other countries would join in the agreement to supply Patriots, with coordination led by Matthew Whitaker, the U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO. Trump confirmed that billions of dollars’ worth of military aid would soon be sent to Ukraine, with NATO and the European Union covering the associated costs. He reassured the public that this was a shared financial burden.

Rutte’s maneuvering

Trump’s sharp remarks were made in the presence of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who seized the moment to press further against the Kremlin. Rutte used the opportunity to highlight Russia’s disinterest in serious negotiations. Speaking about the failed Istanbul peace talks, he noted that Russia had not sent a diplomatic delegation but instead dispatched a historian.

“Putin did not send serious people to the negotiations. I remember how we pressured the Ukrainians to send a proper delegation to Istanbul, and they did. But the Russians came with some historian who began explaining the history of the Russian Federation from the year 1250,” Rutte said, referring to Vladimir Medinsky, who led the Russian delegation.

Rutte continued his remarks, showing he had taken cues from how U.S. Vice President James David Vance had influenced Trump during Ukrainian President Zelensky’s visit to the White House.

“If I were Putin and heard what you were planning for the next 50 days. I would think carefully about whether it’s still worth trying to talk to Ukraine,” Rutte said.

Trump does not want to lose caution

U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent statements do not necessarily mean that relations between the United States and Russia—gradually improving over the past few months—will come to a complete halt. Trump has consistently chosen his words with caution when criticizing Russian President Vladimir Putin. The 50-day deadline for halting the invasion of Ukraine is, in fact, relatively long, suggesting a measured approach. Overall, Trump has adopted a slightly softer tone. He has refrained from labeling Putin a “murderer,” has called for negotiations, and has criticized the continuation of the war and the bombing of Ukrainian cities. Aside from the Patriot systems, Trump has not explicitly promised to supply other weapons. However, U.S. media report that the United States may sell short-range missiles, howitzers, and medium-range air-to-air missiles to NATO members, which would then be delivered to Ukraine. The president himself has remained silent on this issue. His goal appears unchanged: Trump seems willing to wait for Putin as long as necessary.

If Ukraine strengthens its position as a result of the incoming military aid, it could curb Russia’s ambitions by narrowing its objectives. However, this view is not shared by the Russian leadership. Leonid Slutsky, head of the Russian State Duma’s Committee on International Affairs, called Trump’s statement a mere “maneuver.” He said that if Trump truly wanted to influence the situation in Ukraine, he should “show his fist” to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, rather than threaten Russia with secondary sanctions. Meanwhile, Konstantin Kosachev, Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council, stated that significant changes could occur within 50 days—both on the battlefield and in the political stance of the United States and NATO. This appeared to suggest that intensified Russian military actions could alter the situation in Ukraine before the deadline expires. For this reason, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas expressed concern that the 50-day deadline granted to Putin may, in reality, give Russia time to escalate the war and increase casualties.

Putin has announced he will not stop

To understand the recent shift in dynamics around the Ukraine invasion, one must consider what triggered the change. Many point to the last phone call between Trump and Putin as the key turning point. For nearly two weeks, discussions have revolved around the contents of that call and how it may have influenced subsequent decisions and strategies. A new detail, recently reported by the news outlet Axios, has drawn further attention. According to the publication, during that conversation, Vladimir Putin told Trump that Russia planned to intensify its offensive in Ukraine over the next two months. The Russian leader reportedly said that “in the next 60 days, Russia will take new actions to fully seize key Ukrainian regions.” Sources claim that Trump relayed these details to French President Emmanuel Macron, marking a decisive moment in the deterioration of ties between the Kremlin and the White House.

Despite this, Trump is not ready to completely sever relations with Putin. In an interview with the BBC, the U.S. President said that while he is disappointed in Putin’s actions, he has not closed the door on future dialogue.

“I am disappointed with Putin’s actions, but that does not mean it’s over. I spoke with Putin four times and I thought we had an agreement. But then I see Russia bomb a maternity hospital in Kyiv or something like that. And I say to myself, ‘What the hell is this?’” Trump said.

When asked how much he trusts Putin, Trump responded candidly: “To be honest, I trust almost nobody.”